PRD → Real Estate News → Q3 2018 Key Market Indicators

Q3 2018 Key Market Indicators

August 28 2018

New South Wales does it again: Gold Award Nationally for Most Improved Number of First Home Buyer Loans

New South Wales (NSW) takes out the gold award nationally for the most improved number of first home buyer loans, for the third quarter in a row. In Q3 2018 Key Market Indicator NSW recorded an 80.8% growth in the number of first home buyer loans over the past 12 months to March 2018, higher than Q2 2018 Key Market Indicator (74.9%) and Q1 2018 Key Market Indicator (70.9%). The Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and Victoria (VIC) are next in line for the most improved number of first home buyer loans, at 80.6% and 35.3% respectively. NSW, ACT, and VIC are not originally known for its friendliness towards first home buyers, yet states that are – Queensland, South Australia, and Tasmania – their number of first home buyer loans only grew by single digits of 5.0%, 7.5%, and 6.9% respectively.

The Northern Territory (NT) is a top performer for home loan affordability index growth, increasing by 6.3% over the past 12 months to March 2018 and taking out the gold award nationally. That said this is below the NT’s rate of home loan affordability index growth in Q2 2018 Key Market Indicator, which was 8.1% over the past 12 months to December 2017. NSW received the bronze award nationally in most improved home loan affordability index growth, at -0.7%. This is the first time where an award was given to a state with negative growth in this category. This further confirms that affordability continues to be a major issue across Australia, declining by an average of -3.0% over the past 12 months to March 2018.

Q3 2018 Key Market Indicators brings us the most positive news regarding the Australian Consumer Sentiment to date, with the index sitting at 106.1 points. This is well above the 100.0 indicator for positive sentiment. This is the highest index reading since December 2013 (105.0 index points), which interestingly was just prior to the Sydney and Melbourne market skyrocketing. Not only that, a 106.1 index reading represents a 9.8% improvement over the past 12 months to July 2017, the highest level of growth over the past 24months. This is momentous in the Australian market, particularly as we are seeing capital city house median prices – particularly Sydney and Melbourne – slowing down. This truly marks a return to the more sustainable level of property price growth in Australia, and a more confident consumer (towards economic health) because of it.

The PRD Q3 2018 Key Market Indicators provide a quick snapshot of the current state of the market in Australia from both an economic and property perspective. The Indicators cover both national and state-level data, comprising of:

1. Number of loans to first home buyers
2. Home loan affordability index
3. Number of dwelling approvals
4. Consumer sentiment index
5. Standard variable loan
6. Consumer price inflation index
7. Unemployment rate
8. Weekly family income
9. Nett migration

View the State and Territory Q3 2018 Key Market Indicators: