Bendigo Commercial Report 1st Half 2025

Commercial Sales

In 2024, which for this report captures sales data between January and December, the median sales price was $1,276 per sqm, reflecting an -8.9% decline from the peak of $1,400 per sqm in 2023. That said, this reflects a surge in median per sqm (based on land area) price since 2020, of 67.4%.

Between 2023 and 2024 commercial sales grew by 21.9% to 89 transactions, confirming there is strong demand. Since peaking at 96 sales in 2022 commercial sales have fluctuated in 2023; that said it showed signs of recovery in 2024, largely due to slightly improving business confidence.

Industrial Sales

The industrial sector saw a strong performance in 2024, with the median price reaching a peak of $547 per sqm. This represents a significant annual price growth of 30.0% compared to 2023 and an impressive 219.1% increase since 2020; highlighting growing market confidence as buyers actively compete for industrial space.

Total sales climbed from 36 in 2020 to a record high of 66 in 2021, stabilizing at an average of 47 sales in 2022 and 2023. In 2024, sales reached 51, marking a 15.9% increase from 2023, confirming the sustained demand in this resilient sector. With only 4 industrial projects planned in 1st half of 2025, competition is expected to remain high, potentially driving prices further upward.

Commercial Leasing

The median net lease rate for commercial property in Greater Bendigo was $219 per sqm in Q4 2024, up from $155 per sqm in Q2 2024 but still below the $281 per sqm recorded in Q4 2023. This suggests a resilient commercial leasing market.

Leasing activity fell to a historical low, with only 1 lease recorded in Q4 2024. This aligns with a sharp drop in business confidence, to -3 index points in November and remained at -2 index points in December 2024, highlighting a broader shift towards a cautious market sentiment.

Industrial Leasing

The industrial market was less active in Q4 2024, with only 2 leases recorded in Greater Bendigo. The median net lease rate was $52 per sqm in Q4 2024, which was one of the lowest median recorded; however, with only two leases this pricing fluctuates. Other quarters in the past 2yrs suggests an average pricing of approximately $100per sqm; peaking at $117 per sqm in Q2 2024.

The Greater Bendigo industrial leasing market have proven to be traditionally small, and latest figures reflects the combined impact of a more cautious market sentiment and higher borrowing costs. With only 4 industrial projects planned in the 1st half 2025 there is a potential for price per sqm recovery, as business sentiment improves.

Projects Development

Bendigo will benefit from an estimated $1.6B of planned projects, to commence construction in 2024-2026. 270 major projects are proceeding, which is 98.8% of the original pipeline.

Compared to 2024, the total project value has increased across all sectors in 2025. Industrial and commercial developments saw the most significant growth, which will create more jobs and enhance liveability; thus, driving housing demand. In terms of project numbers, the focus has shifted from commercial in 2024 (18 projects) to residential in 2025 (44 projects). These projects will add 20 units, 23 townhouses, and 127 houses; which will help address some of the demand. The 974 land lots planned will need time before it is ready for the market, thus a more long-term plan.

A key mixed-use project in the 1st half 2025 is 250 St Aidans Road Kennington Vincent Care Social Housing Precinct, adding 74 senior townhouses, 10 apartments and a community hub.Key residential projects include 9, 31 & Walmer Street, Mccleans Road & Mannes Lane Residential Subdivision & Dwellings (257 Dwellings + 6 Lots) and Marnie Place Kennington Dwellings (34 Dwellings). A total of 43 dwellings are planned, followed by 3 units and 3 townhouses. 524 land lots will require time for construction before entering the market as ready-to-sell houses/townhouses.

In the 1st half of 2025, 16 commercial projects are planned, including Axedale Solar Farm ($240.0M) and 75-81 Sargeants Road Primary & Secondary School - Victory Christian College Stage 1 ($25.0M). Bendigo Depot Facility Redevelopment ($20.0M) is a key infrastructure project planned, aiming to improve local transport operations. 4 industrial projects are planned in the 1st half of 2025, including 27-33 Piper Lane Warehouse ($900K) and 7-9 Nolan Street Warehouse ($300K). These developments aim to help alleviate the current undersupply, particularly in the leasing market, adding to the available industrial space.